As the largest downstream industry of caustic soda, the alumina market will have a strong supporting role on liquid prices in the first half of 2024. From the price point of view, alumina prices, the first half of the strong operation, to some extent, the support of liquid prices rose slightly. From the perspective of demand, the alumina production decreased slightly in the first half of the year, and there was no increment in liquid demand.
Alumina prices rose in the first half of the year, the liquid prices have a certain support
In the first half of 2024, the alumina industry due to the tight increase of raw material supply, the output is slightly reduced and the price bias strong operation. According to zhuochuang information tracking, the average price of Shandong alumina in the first half of the year was 3434.87 yuan / ton, up 541.48 yuan / ton compared with the first half of last year 2893.39 yuan / ton, up 18.71%. In the first half of 2024, the average price of 32% wave in Shandong is about 767.83 yuan / ton, down 13.51% compared with the average price of 887.74 yuan / ton in the first half of last year. From the six-year average price, alumina and wave price contrary. But from the price trend, this year, alumina prices showed an upward trend, and the liquid also showed a small upward trend. In the first half of the year, when the growth rate of supply was greater than the growth rate of demand, the wave price rose slightly. On the one hand, the periodic supply side was repaired, which slightly supported the price; on the other hand, it was mainly boosted by the rise of alumina price.
Pada paruh pertama produksi alumina terjadi penurunan permintaan cairan tanpa kenaikan
Alumina industry capacity in the first half of this year has expanded compared with the first half of last year, but the tight first half of bauxite supply, the production capacity operation rate is low, the first half of alumina operation capacity 72.77%, 0.86 percentage points lower than the first half of last year 73.63%, from January to June in 2024 alumina cumulative output 40.466 million tons, 1.14% less than 41.2355 million tons in the same period last year. However, some alumina enterprises use low-grade bauxite in stages, and the single consumption of caustic soda increases slightly. Therefore, the liquid demand of alumina industry this year is not less compared with the first half of last year.
Dilihat dari fundamental likuid, pasokan pada semester pertama tahun 2024 relatif mencukupi, dan kinerja permintaan datar, namun tren harga likuid sedikit meningkat, sampai batas tertentu dipengaruhi oleh kuatnya harga alumina dan peningkatan keuntungan. .
Produksi alumina pada paruh kedua tahun ini sedikit meningkat dan harganya terus meningkat
Pada paruh kedua tahun ini, kekurangan pasokan bahan baku alumina sulit diatasi secara signifikan, dan tingkat operasi kapasitas produksi mungkin sekitar 80%, namun pada kuartal keempat, 3,5 juta ton kapasitas produksi dapat dimasukkan ke dalam produksi, pasokan mungkin sedikit meningkat, dan permintaan cairan mungkin sedikit meningkat. Namun dari sudut pandang harga, pasokan alumina relatif terbatas, harga mungkin terus mengalami guncangan tinggi, ruang pertumbuhan keuntungan terbatas, dan dukungan pasar gelombang bersifat umum.
Comprehensive alumina demand and price changes, alumina industry in the second half of the wave market still has a certain benefit. However, the impact of profit still needs to pay more attention to the resumption of domestic bauxite production and the supply of imported bauxite, the change in the operation rate of alumina production capacity and the production progress of new alumina production capacity.(Zhuochuang Information)
